WCRP Workshop on Seasonal to Multi-Decadal Preditability of Polar Climate
Bergen, Norway
October 25 - 29, 2010

List of Presentations and Posters

The WCRP held its workshop on the predictability of polar climate in Bergen, Norway on October 25 - 29, 2010. The discussions were lively and engaging. The presentations and posters are listed below.


Monday October 25

SESSION 0 CONVENOR AND RAPPORTEUR: TED SHEPHERD
9:00 Ted Shepherd - Workshop Introduction
9:30 Ben Kirtman: Seasonal to decadal prediction
10:00 George Boer: Aspects of polar decadal predictability
SESSION 1 CONVENORS: CECILIA BITZ & HUGUES GOOSSE
11:30 Katharine Giles: Role of ice thickness in Arctic sea ice predictability
14:30 Cecilia Bitz: How early can we predict the sea ice summer minimum?
14:50 Jim Overland: Hot Arctic/cold continents: hemispheric aspects of Arctic change
15:10 Marilyn Raphael: Antarctic climate and sea ice variability
16:30 François Massonnet & Thierry Fichefet: Importance of physics, resolution and forcing in hindcast simulations of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice variability and trends
16:50 Hugues Goosse: Observed and simulated sea ice variations over the last century


Tuesday October 26

SESSION 2 CONVENORS: TORE FUREVIK & JOHN MARSHALL
9:00 David Holland: Impacts and projections of ice ocean interaction on sea level change
9:20 Karen Heywood: Antarctic bottom water formation and variability of Antarctic water masses
9:40 Sarah Gille: Antarctic Circumpolar Current response to the Southern Annular Mode: changes in mixed layer depth and jet position
10:00 John Marshall: Closing the meridional overturning circulation through Southern Ocean upwelling
11:30 Andrey Proshutinsky: Arctic Ocean processes and their predictability
11:50 Cecilie Mauritzen: Changes to ocean hydrography
12:10 Svein Østerhus & Tore Furevik: Poleward propagation of heat anomalies
14:00 Arnaud Czaja: A new mechanism of ocean atmosphere coupling in the extra tropics
14:20 Tor Eldevik & Helge Drange: On the persistence and possible prediction of the Arctic/Atlantic thermohaline circulation
SESSION 3 CONVENORS: JULIE ARBLASTER & TED SHEPHERD
16:00 Paul Kushner: Stratospheric influence on polar climate
16:20 Shigeo Yoden: Numerical studies on internal and external variations of the winter polar vortex with a mechanistic circulation model
16:40 Ted Shepherd: Long memory processes in the stratosphere



Wednesdsay October 27

Session 3 Continued
9:00
9:20 Judith Perlwitz: Effect of Antarctic ozone changes on the troposphere
9:40 Michael Sigmond: The ozone hole, the Southern Ocean, and Antarctic sea ice trends
10:00 Julie Jones: Twentieth Century behaviour of the Southern Annular Mode
11:30 Xiangdong Zhang: Recent rapid changes in Arctic climate
11:50 Hiroshi Tanaka: Arctic Oscillation or ice albedo feedback: A discrepancy in the
warming pattern of the IPCC model projections
SESSION 4 CONVENORS: VLADIMIR KATTSOV & JOHN WALSH
14:00 Michael Karcher: On the connection of Atlantic inflow variability and the overflows via the Arctic Ocean loop
14:20 Koji Shimada: Influence of activations of sea ice motion and upper ocean circulation on recent Arctic climate change
14:40 Mark Serreze: Predictability of the Arctic air temperature field
16:00 David Lawrence: The terrestrial response to, and role in, Arctic climate and climate change
16:40 Andrew Slater: Land data assimilation for seasonal prediction and beyond


Thursday 28th

Session 4 Continued
9:00 Alex Hall: A strategy to improve projections of Arctic climate change
9:20 Jens Christensen: Arctic climate system modelling: on the role of systematic errors
9:40 Annette Rinke & Klaus Dethloff: The role of regional Arctic processes for predictability on seasonal to inter annual time scales
SESSION 5 CONVENORS: TORE FUREVIK & VLADIMIR RYABININ
11:30 Mark Baldwin: Stratospheric impact on seasonal prediction
11:50 Yvan Orsolini: Seasonal predictability over the Arctic: exploring the role of boundary conditions
12:10 Judah Cohen: Impact of snow cover on seasonal prediction
14:00 Laurent Bertino & Francois Counillon: Ocean assimilation and forecasting
14:20 Frank Kauker: Seasonal ice forecasting and variational data assimilation with the coupled sea ice ocean model NAOSIM
14:40 Johann Jungclaus: Decadal climate predictions: the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas
15:00 Doug Smith: Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic sub polar gyre and associated climate
16:30 Ed Hawkins: Decadal predictability of the Arctic and Atlantic
16:50 John Walsh: A probabilistic framework for prediction of Arctic change




Posters

1
2 Natalia Ivanova: Artic sea ice variability observed by satellite passive microwave sensors: A comparison of sea ice algorithms
3 Kirill Khvorostovsky: Decadal elevation changes of the Greenland ice sheet
4 Vladimir Kryjov: DJF 09/10, a winter of extemely low Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode: Was it predictable?
5 Victoria Miles: Helheim outlet glacier interaction with the Sermilik Fjord on the East Greenland Coast
6 Yvan Orsolini: Cooling of the wintertime Arctic stratosphere induced by the Western Pacific teleconnection pattern
7 Svein Østerhaus & Tor Gammelsrod: Bipolar Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (IPY-BIAC)
8 Laurent Bertino: TOPAZ: the MyOcean Arctic Forecasting Center
9 Steffen Tietsche: Towards sea-ice initialization in coupled climate models
10 Linling Chen: Accumulation over the Greenland Ice Sheet as represented in reanalysis data and related atmospheric circulation



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