CSHD 5
Principal Investigator: Andrew Weaver
Co-investigator: Dr. D. Wright
Preamble:
Funding for CSHD work was received by the Office of Research
Administration, University of Victoria at the beginning of October, 1996.
As
such the progress reported in sections 1.1 and 1.2 below is progress
which has
largely arisen from funding through the NOAA Scripps Lamont Consortium on
the
Ocean's Role in Climate. This NOAA funding source has now been replaced
by the
CSHD project. Of the $60,000 received in October, $20,000 was transferred
to
Dalhousie University to support Dr. D. Wright's work in this project. His
progress is highlighted in Section 1.3 below.
1. Achievements
1.1 Simulation of the Younger Dryas event
An Energy-Moisture Balance Atmospheric Model (EMBM) has been developed
and
coupled to an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) and a Thermodynamic
Ice
Model (Fanning and Weaver, 1996). This EMBM-TIM-OGCM has been used to
investigate the transition between the last glaciation and the present
Holocene
and in particular the Younger Dryas event (hereafter the YD). The
traditional
viewpoint is that the YD was triggered by the diversion of meltwater (due
to
the retreating Laurentide Ice Sheet) from the Gulf of Mexico to the St.
Lawrence (Broecker et al., 1988). In an attempt to clarify the temporal
and
geographical roles of meltwater discharges on triggering the YD,
estimates for
volumes of runoff from the Laurentide ice sheet (Teller, 1990) were
applied for
the 1500 year period encompassing the YD cold episode. Model results
indicate
that the traditional Laurentide meltwater diversion theory is
insufficient to
induce a YD climate signature, although preconditioning by the pre-YD
meltwater
discharge in conjunction with the diversion is.
The model predicted YD climate shift is global in nature, and is
intimately
linked to North Atlantic deepwater (NADW) formation. The global
thermohaline
circulation provides an interhemispheric teleconnection with the Southern
Ocean, while changes in the atmospheric heat transport (reacting to a
global
redistribution of oceanic heat transport) provides a mechanism for
interbasin
teleconnection. Changes in model surface air temperature (Fig. 1a)
generally
agree with the pattern and magnitude of YD temperature change deduced
from
paleoclimatic reconstructions based on existing paleothermometers.
Our results (Fanning and Weaver, 1997) indicate that supplying both pre
and
post-YD meltwater discharges results in a total collapse of the North
Atlantic
conveyor. In the absence of additional model feedbacks, this state
appears to
be relatively stable, and equivalent to the Southern Sinking state
identified
by Manabe and Stouffer (1988). Reestablishment, if it were to occur,
would
appear to be a diffusive process as in previous ocean-only model studies
under
a polar halocline catastrophe (e.g., Marotzke, 1989; Weaver and Sarachik,
1991). If instead we allow for the effects of this climate state to
feedback
onto the surface winds, reestablishment occurs on a faster time scale.
This is
due to an increased surface salinification through latent heat loss and
Ekman
transport of the salinity anomaly out of the region of deepwater
formation.
This result is consistent with previous studies of freshwater
perturbations on
the North Atlantic Conveyor (e.g., Schiller et al., 1996; Mikolajewicz,
1996),
however, unlike these studies the model settles into a new equilibrium
state
with reduced NADW formation as in Rahmstorf (1994). We also note that
unlike
these same studies, the time scale for reestablishment of NADW, and hence
termination of the YD signal is an advective spinup time scale (order
1000
years) as opposed to decadal-century. The reason for this discrepancy is
unclear, but may be associated with the used of fixed salt flux fields
employed
by earlier studies.
While we have not explicitly addressed the question of the role of the
Fennoscandian Ice Sheet's demise on the YD, our results suggest at most
it
would have prolonged the YD episode. This raises a final point, is the
advective spinup time scale found here representative of the time scale
for the
YD termination? Considering the d18O record at Summit
(Dansgaard et
al., 1993), the bulk of warming signaling during the transition from the
YD to
the Holocene occurred over a 200 year period (although full termination
took
much longer). So, it appears that further treatment of model feedbacks
(e.g.,
cloud effects) and perhaps radiative forcing (due to increasing levels of
CO2 are needed to investigate the Younger Dryas termination further.
1.2 Paleoclimatic response of the closure of the Isthmus of
Panama
The paleoclimatic effects of the closure of the Isthmus of Panama ~3
million
years ago have also been investigated using the coupled OGCM-TIM-EMBM of
Fanning and Weaver (1996). Consistent with earlier ocean-only modelling
studies
(Maier-Reimer et al., 1990; Mikolajewicz et al., 1993), it was shown that
prior
to the closing of the Isthmus of Panama, the Atlantic behaved more
similar to
the present-day Pacific Ocean with a conspicuous absence of deep water
formation. Associated with the absence of North Atlantic deep water
formation
was a significant reduction in both the Atlantic and global oceanic heat
transports. This reduction in oceanic heat transport was largely
compensated
for by an increase in the total atmospheric heat transport, with the
result
that only small changes in planetary heat transport occurred. Model
results
suggest that the present-day climate of the North Atlantic is
significantly
warmer, together with a general cooler trend in the southern hemisphere
and the
region surrounding the Pacific Ocean, than before the closure of the
Isthmus
(Fig. 1b). Finally, possible relationships to glaciation and initiation
of
glacial cycles in the Northern Hemisphere, were discussed. These results
have
recently been accepted for publication (Murdock et al., 1997).
1.3 Low-order coupled model studies
Drs. Wright and Stocker have completed their manuscript
(Stocker
and Wright, 1996) on the influence of rapid changes in ocean circulation
(such
as believed to have occurred during the Younger Dryas event) on
atmospheric radiocarbon.
Dr. Wright has written up a paper (Wright, 1996) on a very efficient
equation
of state for ocean water. This work was motivated by the fact that
calculations
of density using the full UNESCO equation of state can easily use up 50%
of the
CPU in low order models of the ocean. Many previous studies have used a
linearized equation of state, but results presented by J. Tong (Dalhousie
University, MSc thesis, 1995) show that this can lead to incorrect
results. The
new equation of state is accurate, very simply implemented and uses only
about
10% as much CPU as the full UNESCO equation of state. It has been used in
several of their previous studies and will be used in all of their future
paleoclimate research.
Drs. Wright, Stocker and Mercer have written up a manuscript (Wright et
al.,
1997) on the various closure schemes used in zonally averaged models. The
primary purpose of this manuscript is to clearly present the assumptions
that
are implicitly made in using various closure schemes. It is shown that
the
Rayleigh damping form of dissipation used by Wright and Stocker
reasonably
represents the important momentum and vorticity dissipation in the
western
boundary, and that this term is very crudely represented in the Fickian
diffusion models. On the other hand, as indicated by the work of Sakai
and
Peltier, if high resolution is required, horizontal viscosity is required
to
suppress a numerical instability. An efficient scheme which includes both
effects is presented. The third closure used in zonally averaged ocean
models
is that introduced by Wright et al (1995). This model is based on zonally
averaging the vorticity equations and is shown to be clearly superior to
either
of the popular models based on zonally averaging the momentum
equations.
Drs. Wright, Brickman and Hyde have collaborated on a study of the
influence
of the ocean on very long timescale climate variability. In this study,
the
ocean response is shown to result in an amplification of the direct
eccentricity forcing (periods of about 100,000 and 400,000 years), and
simple
physical explanations are given. Surprising results on the relative
phases of
the responses at 40,000 years and 100,000 years are found in this study
and a
very simple model is developed to explain why these peculiar results
occur.
Sorting these effects out is an important step in the interpretation of
paleoclimate records. A first draft of a paper on this work has been
written
and is expected to be submitted to Paleoceanography within the next month
or
two.
1.4 References not in attached list
Broecker, W.S., M. Andree, W. Wolfli, H. Oeschger, G. Bonani, J.
Kennett, and D. Peteet, The chronology of the last deglaciation:
Implications
to the cause of the Younger Dryas event. Paleoceanogr., 3,
1-19,
1988.
Maier-Reimer, E., U. Mikolajewicz, T.J. Crowley, 1990, Ocean general
circulation model sensitivity experiment with an open central american
Isthmus,
Paleoceanogr., 5, 349-366.
Manabe, S., and R.J. Stouffer, 1988: Two stable equilibria of a coupled
ocean-atmosphere model. J. Climate, 1, 841-866.
Marotzke, J., 1989: Instabilities and multiple steady states of the
thermohaline circulation, in Oceanic Circulation Models: Combining
Data and
Dynamics, NATO ASI Ser., edited by D.L.T. Anderson and J. Willebrand,
501-511 pp., Kluwer Acad.
Mikolajewicz, U., 1996: A meltwater induced collapse of the `conveyor
belt'
thermohaline circulation and its influence on the distribution of
delta14 C and delta18O in the oceans, Max Planck Inst. for
Meteorol., Rep. 189, Hamburg, Germany.
Mikolajewicz, U., E. Maier-Reimer, T.J. Crowley, and K.-Y. Kim, 1993,
Effect of
Drake and Panamanian gateways on the circulation of an ocean model,
Paleoceanogr., 8, 409-426.
Rahmstorf, S, 1994: Rapid climate transitions in a coupled
ocean-atmosphere
model. Nature, 372, 82-85.
Schiller, A., U. Mikolajewicz, and R. Voss, 1996: The stability of the
thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general
circulation
model, Max Planck Inst. for Meteorol., Rep. 188, Hamburg, Germany.
Teller, J.T., 1990: Meltwater and precipitation runoff to the North
Atlantic,
Arctic, and Gulf of Mexico from the Laurentide Ice sheet and adjacent
regions
during the Younger Dryas, Paleoceanogr., 5, 897-905.
Weaver, A.J., and E.S. Sarachik, 1991: The role of mixed boundary
conditions in
numerical models of the ocean's climate, J. Phys. Oceanogr.,
21,
1470-1493.
Wright, D.G., Vreugdenhil, C.B. and T.M.C. Hughes, 1995: Vorticity
dynamics and
zonally averaged ocean circulation models, 25, 2141-2154.
2. Proposed Activities over the Next Year
I would like to further our understanding of the mechanisms of climate
variability through the use of increasingly more sophisticated coupled
models.
The coupled energy-moisture balance atmosphere/ocean/ice model represents
the
simplest form of my proposed coupled modelling studies. I hope to use it
to
explore simple thermodynamic feedbacks and gain insight into what results
we
might expect and which experiments we should undertake with the more
complicated Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model.
The
GFDL coupled model is more sophisticated than the aforementioned coupled
model
as it includes full atmospheric dynamics and physics. In addition, the
GFDL
coupled model will be used to investigate questions concerning the
existence of
variability in the coupled climate system and how it varies as the mean
climatic state changes (e.g., does the decadal-interdecadal climate
variability
found in the coupled model change as CO2 is increased in the atmosphere?
Is a
colder, glacial climate inherently more unstable?).
Two important paradoxes exist in the paleoclimatic literature. The first
of
these concerns how it was possible for the Ordovician climate (~440
million
years ago) to support glaciers when the atmosphere had CO2 levels 16
times
higher than today. Similarly, during the Cretaceous, atmospheric CO2
levels
were 8 times the present yet recent evidence has suggested that it was
much
cooler than previously thought, with tropical temperatures similar to
those of
today and polar temperatures hovering around freezing. I hope to unravel
these
questions through the use of our newly-developed coupled model. This
research
will be funded by my NSERC Steacie Fellowship Supplement Grant but is
relevant
to the CSHD project.
In order to test whether or not the assumption of the use of present day
sea
surface temperatures is valid in the 6 kyr BP simulation of CSHD-8, we
will use
our coupled model to examine the oceanic response to 6 kyr BP orbital
forcing
and CO2 levels. Furthermore, we will conduct a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)
experiment, analagous to that done in CSHD-8, to look at potential
oceanic
changes. The results of both experiments will likely lead to better sea
surafce
temperature estimates with which to drive the AGCM of CSHD-8.
Finally, Drs. G. Clarke and S. Marshall at the University of British
Columbia
(also CSHD participants) and I have initiated a collaboration which will
entail
coupling their newly developed ice sheet model into the coupled
EMBM-TIM-OGCM
of Fanning and Weaver (1996). A. Fanning who has submitted his PhD thesis
and
will move to MIT shortly has also expressed an interested in this
collaboration. Upon coupling the ice sheet model to our EMBM-TIM-OGCM we
propose to examine ice sheet/climate interactions during the last
glaciation
and in particular during the transition from the last glacial maximum to
the
present. This study will be complementary to that already undertaken with
our
coupled model (section 1.1) as sources of freshwater discharge will be
computed
internally. We also hope to examine the climatic response to Milankovitch
Cycles as well as the possible existence and mechanisms of Heinrich
events in
the coupled system. In addition, we will try to use this climate system
model
to investigate the onset of northern hemisphere glaciation by examining
the
climate system response to the opening and closing of oceanic gateways
(i.e.,
the Isthmus of Panama, Bering Strait and the Greenland-Iceland-Faroes
rise).
3. Training of Highly Qualified Personel since 1994
The CSHD project provides full or partial funding for one
postdoctoral
research associate (Dr. S. Valcke), two MSc students (T. Murdock; P.
Poussart)
and one PhD student (A. Fanning). I have a large group of
postdocs/research
associates (see below) and have recently offered positions to three new
graduate students and three new postdoctoral research associates (as S.
Valcke
recently accepted a permanent job in France).
At Dalhousie University, two Msc students (J. Tong and D. Mercer) have
defended their theses and since graduated during the course of this
project.
Details of Graduate Supervision (present):
Augustus Fanning (PhD): Coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling
started
Sept. 1, 1993 (Atlantic Accord Career Development Award)
Trevor Murdock (MSc): Paleoclimatic changes associated with the opening of
Drake
Passage and
the closure of the Isthmus of Panama
started Sept.
1, 1995
(UVic Graduate Fellowship)
Edward Wiebe (MSc): The role of the Southern Ocean in global climate
change
started May 1,
1996 (UVic Graduate Fellowship)
Pascale Poussart (MSc): Paleoclimatic Modelling
Started September 1,
1996
(FCAR Scholarship)
Details of Graduate Supervision (past):
Trudy Wohlleben (MSc): Decadal climate variability in the subpolar
North
Atlantic
degree conferred: 1994 (AES Educational Leave)
Daniel Robitaille (MSc): On the use of CFCs in an ocean general
circulation
model
degree conferred: 1997
Thierry Reynaud (PhD): Dynamics of the northwestern Atlantic Ocean: a
diagnostic study
degree conferred: 1994 (FCAR Scholarship)
Tertia Hughes (PhD): Uniqueness and variability of the ocean's thermohaline
circulation
degree conferred: 1995 (NSERC Scholarship; Tri-Council Eco-Research
Doctoral Fellowship)
Paul Myers (PhD): Finite element solutions of the barotropic vorticity
equation:
Applications
to the North Atlantic and North Pacific
degree conferred: 1996 (Tri-Council Eco-Research Doctoral Fellowship)
Other Visiting Doctoral Students Working under my Supervision
(past):
Thierry Huck (PhD): Visiting from IFREMER, Laboratory of Oceanography (Brest,
France)
January, 1995- September, 1996
Geert Lenderink (PhD): Visiting from KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological
Institute)
November, 1994 - December, 1994
Postdoctoral/Research Associate Supervision (present):
Dr. Sheng Zhang: Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice Modelling
July 1, 1995 - to date
Mr. Michael Eby: Ocean-Climate Modelling
September 1, 1995 - to date
Postdoctoral/Research Associate Supervision (past):
Dr. Salil Das: Semi-Lagrangian Advection Algorithms in Ocean
Models
August 1, 1992 - December 31, 1994
Dr. Benyang Tang: Simple Models of Air-Sea-Ice Climate
Interactions
July 1, 1993 - March 31, 1995
Dr. Tertia Hughes: Ocean-Climate Modelling
January 1, 1995 - December 31, 1995
Dr. Amit Tandon: Decade-to-Century Climate Variability.
(UCAR fellowship for Decadal-Centennial Variability of the
Oceanic
Thermohaline Circulation -- CSMP Project)
January 1, 1995 - December 31, 1996
Dr. Sophie Valcke: Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Ice Modelling
(NSERC Postdoctoral Fellowship)
September 1, 1995 - February, 1997
Computing Research Associate/Assistant Supervision
(present):
Daniel Robitaille: Computer Systems Manager
March 1, 1995 - to date
Computing Research Associate/Assistant Supervision (past):
Richard Outerbridge: Computer Systems/Software Manager
July 1, 1992 - December 31, 1995
Nicholas Bakalov: Assistant Computer Systems Operator
February 1, 1994 - August 31, 1995
Magdelina Bakalov: Assistant Computer Systems Operator
February 1, 1994 - November 30, 1995
Undergraduate Summer Students Supervised
Trevor Murdock: NSERC Summer Undergraduate Research Award
holder
May 1, 1995 - August 31, 1995
Kevin Bartlett: UVic Physics Coop Student
May 1, 1996 - August 31, 1996
Undergraduate Student Honours thesis/Final Project Supervision
(past)
John Campbell Scenario Manager at the Department of Fisheries
and
Oceans
Certificate Program in Computer Based Information Systems.
certificate awarded: 1996
Edward Wiebe (BSc):The circulation of the Greenland Sea as obtained from
hydrographic
and ice
drift data
degree conferred: 1996
Secretarial/Accountant Supervision (present):
Lucy Aldridge Accountant
May 1, 1994 - to date
Wanda Lewis Secretary
January 1, 1995 - to date
4. Collaborations
I continue to have extensive collaborations with members of the
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis with regards to the
development of fully coupled Atmosphere/Ocean GCMs for undertaking
climate
change experiments. On January 28, 1997 I visited Drs. G. Clarke and S.
Marshall with Mr. A Fanning to initiate a whole new avenue of
investigation
within the CSHD. Specifically, we will be incorporating their ice-sheet
model
into our coupled EMBM-TIM-OGCM to investigate feedbacks within the
coupled
system and the question concerning the onset of northern hemisphere
glaciation
(see section 2). The LGM and 6 kyr BP experiments discussed in section 2
will
lead to collaboration with all other CSHD groups. Finally, I have begun
to
investigate mechanisms for collaboration with Dr. A. Bush who recently
moved to
the University of Alberta from Princeton University. We are both
interested in
issues regarding the paleoclimate of the Ordovician and the Cretaceous
and
expect to conduct model intercomparisons. Collaborations with Dr. I. Fung
(Carbon Cycle) and C. Barnes (Paleoclimate of the Ordovician) at the
University
of Victoria are continuing.
Dr. Thomas Stocker visited D. Wright at the Bedford Institute for
the
month of August, 1996. During this period Drs. Wright and Stocker
completed
revisions of the paper "Rapid changes in ocean circulation and
atmospheric
radiocarbon", continued work on the manuscript "Closures used in zonally
averaged models" and initiated new work on the stability of the
thermohaline
circulation. He hopes to have Dr. Stocker visit for a similar period
again this
coming summer.
Drs. Wright and Brickman also collaborated with Dr. William Hyde on the
manuscript "Filtering of Milankovitch forcing by the Thermohaline
Circulation".
5. Publication list from January 1994
CSHD 5-1
Stocker, T.S., W.S. Broecker and D.G. Wright, 1994: Carbon Uptake
experiments
with a zonally-averaged global ocean circulation model. Tellus,
46B, 103-122.
CSHD 5-2
Weaver, A.J. and T.M.C. Hughes, 1994: Rapid interglacial climate
fluctuations
driven by North Atlantic ocean circulation. Nature, 367,
447-450.
CSHD 5-3
Hughes, T.M.C. and A.J. Weaver, 1994: Multiple equilibria of an
asymmetric
two-basin ocean model. Journal of Physical Oceanography,
24,
619-637.
CSHD 5-4
Weaver, A.J., S.M. Aura and P.G. Myers, 1994: Interdecadal variability in
a
coarse resolution North Atlantic model. Journal of Geophysical
Research,
99, 12,423-12,441.
CSHD 5-5
Boyle, E and A.J. Weaver, 1994: Conveying past climates. Nature,
372, 41-42.
CSHD 5-6
Wright, D.G., C.B. Vreugdenhil and T.M.C. Hughes, 1995: Vorticity
dynamics and
zonally averaged circulation models. Journal of Physical
Oceanography,
25, 2141-2154
CSHD 5-7
Tang, B. and A.J. Weaver, 1995: Climate stability as deduced from an
idealized
coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Climate Dynamics, 11,
141-150.
CSHD 5-8
Weaver, A.J., 1995: Driving the ocean conveyor. Nature,
378,
135-136.
CSHD 5-9
Wohlleben, T.M.H. and A.J. Weaver, 1995: Interdecadal climate variability
in
the subpolar North Atlantic. Climate Dynamics, 11,
459-467.
CSHD 5-10
Stocker, T.F. and D.G. Wright. 1996. Rapid changes in ocean circulation
and
atmospheric radiocarbon. Paleoceanography, 11, 773-796.
CSHD 5-11
Weaver, A.J. and T.M.C Hughes, 1996: On the incompatibility of ocean and
atmosphere models and the need for flux adjustments. Climate
Dynamics, 12, 141-170.
CSHD 5-12
Fanning, A.F. and A.J. Weaver, 1996: An atmospheric energy
moisture-balance
model: climatology, interpentadal climate change and coupling to an OGCM.
Journal of Geophysical Research, 101, 15111-15128.
CSHD 5-13
Wright, D.G. 1997. An equation of state for use in ocean models: Eckart's
formula revisited. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology,
14, in press.
CSHD 5-14
Fanning, A.F. and A.J. Weaver, 1997: Temporal-geographical meltwater
influences
on the North Atlantic conveyor: Implications for the Younger Dryas,
Paleoceanography, in press.
CSHD 5-15
Murdock, T.Q., A.J. Weaver and A.F. Fanning, 1997: Paleoclimatic response
of
the closing of the Isthmus of Panama in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model.
Geophysical Research Letters, in press.
CSHD 5-16
Wright, D.G., T.F. Stocker and D. Mercer, 1997. Closures used in zonally
averaged models. Journal of Physical Oceanography, submitted.
CSHD 5-17
Weaver, A.J. and C. Green, 1997: Global climate change: Lessons from the
past
-- policy for the future. Ocean and Coastal Management,
submitted.
CSHD 5-18
Fanning, A.F. and A.J. Weaver, 1997: A horizontal resolution and
parameter
sensitivity study of heat transport in an idealized coupled climate
model,
Journal of Climate, submitted.
CSHD 5-19
Fanning, A.F. and A.J. Weaver, 1997: On the role of flux adjustments in
an
idealized coupled model. Climate Dynamics, submitted.
CSHD 5-20
Fanning, A.F. and A.J. Weaver, 1997: Thermohaline variability: The
effects of
horizontal resolution and diffusion. Journal of Climate,
submitted.
CSHD 5-21
Valcke, S. and A.J. Weaver, 1997. On the variability of the thermohaline
circulation in the GFDL coupled model. Journal of Climate,
submitted.
Figure Caption:
Figure 1: Surface air temperature (SAT) difference (oC) from
the
coupled EMBM-OGCM-TIM paleoclimatic modelling experiments discussed in
Sections
1.1 and 1.2. a) SAT from Younger Dryas experiment minus SAT from present
day
simulation. Dashed lines indicate a negative temperature difference which
implies YD conditions cooler than today. b) SAT from present day
experiment
minus SAT from open Isthmus of Panama experiment. Solid lines indicate a
positive temperature difference which implies the present day conditions
are
warmer than when the Isthmus was open.
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