This is intentionally a rough draft, at places repetitive offering some differing angles to encourage input. Please add, modify, critique, dream, encourage, pass on to others. I'm especially interested in knowing what you think would offer the best contribution from MUN towards addressing the issue of Earth System Global Change, Cheers, Lev Tarasov, Dept of Physics and Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland. email: lev@physics.mun.ca x2675 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Draft proposal for the development of a combined Earth System Science (ESS) and Global Change (GC) program and/or centre at MUN (possibly with a polar/sub-polar focus) (version #2) ------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------ (semantic note: Earth System is used here in the broad sense of including the atmosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, geosphere, and hydrosphere. Global Change (GC) adds the economic, social, political, and policy contexts.) Motivation: The fundamental motivation behind this proposal is our societal incapacity to adequately address global change issues involving complex highly-coupled non-linear systems. A prime example in this regard is the lack of a credible action plan to meet Canada's commitments to the Kyoto accord. Closer to home, a regional example of the results of this incapacity is the collapse of the cod stocks. On many different levels, we are facing potential global analogues of such a collapse. ------------------ Diagnosis: Different (sub-)disciplines will offer different perspectives on the root causes of our current predicament. Therefore please add to the following list: 1) Classical view: vested interests, lack of public commitment/understanding, poor environmental literacy, bureaucratic inertia 2) Predominance of linear determinate paradigm in understanding the world around us, while earth system dynamics have strong non-linear highly coupled elements that result in fundamental indeterminacies and the necessity of a precautionary risked-based policy approach 3) externalization of the environment and social goods from the economic system, and short-term economic horizon (discounting) 4) disconnect between science and policy 5) ------------------ Critique of current state of Earth System Science (ESS) /Global Change (GC) research and education -weak linkages between (and often within) physical science and economic/policy/social sciences -weak data\model linkage -> missing realistic error bars, ... -weak linkages across spatial and temporal scales -lack of presence in the core school and University curriculum -weak capacity to address non-linearity of systems especially concerning critical thresholds, extreme events, and changes in variability ----------------------------------- Overall goal: Address our society's inability to deal with long-term complex earth systems issues (generally involving non-linear highly coupled systems), especially within a rational risk-based framework. ----------------------------------- Some possible activities: 1) Promote interaction/linkages between and within the natural sciences and the social sciences at MUN within an ESS/GC context. 2) Provide a global civics course accessible to most 1st (or 2nd?) year students 3) create a minor in ESS/GC that could complement a broad range of majors 4) provide graduate level courses that address key gaps: eg. the modelling of complex non-linear (and often highly-coupled) systems especially within the Earth System Science context. Model calibration, data analysis/inversion, dynamical theory, and other such theoretical/technical issues could be pursued. 5) Other possible initiatives/activities: integrated plug-able modelling system, internships, public events/education, resources for researchers to broaden scope/impact of their work, integrate teaching and research in ESS, workshops for media/educators/bureaucrats on ESS/GC issues, workshops on public outreach for scientists, 6) ? ---------------------------------------------- Underlying Course objectives for a global civics course: Provide students with a basic understanding of the interconnectedness and non-linear dynamics of the earth system. Provide a political economic context for future scientists. Provide basic conceptual tools for dealing with indeterminacy and risk assessment. Develop the ability to rationally dissect and critique positions and interpretations of global change issues. (It might make more sense to have 2 courses: one for natural science majors and one for others.) ----------------------------------- Organization 1) key need is a small group focused on integration along with departmental champions. Otherwise likely still-birth. 2) which model(s)?: institute, centre, program, minor/major, couple of courses and interdepartmental seminar series/workshops -------------------------------------------- Current status of global change and ESS programs in Canadian Universities: While integrated ESS/global change programs are growing around the world (arguably the most impressive example of a comprehensive approach is the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, http://www.pik-potsdam.de/), there is currently no integrated model within the Canadian academic context that bridges the physical/biological and social/policy/economic sciences divide. Physical science oriented ESS research is occurring at a number of Universities across Canada (including MUN), but I've only found 2 incubating ESS/GC programs (Toronto and McGill). Available niches that are not yet addressed in Canada: -Linkage of social/economic/policy and physical/biological sciences -Polar/sub-polar focus ----------------------------------- Example time-line: Year 1, kickstart: launch of a high-visibility annual ESS/GC public lecture (or set of lectures?) combining natural and social science/policy experts, setup a website for the developing program along with notice of ESS/global change relevant seminars across the campus, promote cross-departmental seminars on ESS/GC Year 2: advanced ESS data analysis/visualization and modelling course, policy/political economy course on global change issues targeted to both physical and social scientists, workshops for media, educators, bureaucrats, and business Year 3: general undergrad ESS/global change course for all 2nd year students, biweekly seminar series on ESS and global change topics Year 4: launch of ESS/global change minor (interdepartmental) Year 6: launch of graduate program? ------------------------------------------------------- ***To discuss: 1) what is feasible?, departmental interest 2) steps needed to move this proposal forward, who else to talk to, funding ideas 3) organizational structure: program or centre or ? 4) key issues and concerns to resolve:, eg : overlap with existing programs, breadth/depth balance, gaps 5) research and student markets (undergrad and grad) 6) key selling points: eg. strong natural/social science dialogue, MUN has the bits and pieces, but is missing the synergy from integrating these bits and pieces with well-focussed attention 7) details: what special angle/skills could we offer, what is missing in interdisciplinary ESS/GC (ie what niche could we target), what outcomes would we want for such a program, for whom would the program be? ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------- MORE DETAILS and APPENDICES ------------------------------------------- What's needed to make this work? 1) Champions from each relevant department 2) Some high level support from the University administration 3) Funding for an initial high-profile public lecture series 4) administrative support for coordination, web-site development/maintenance, outreach, .... ------------------------------------- Opportunities: MUN departments and research units: Harris Centre Grenville College programs: government:? media: public school system key missing components: ----------------------------- Educational target outcomes for a minor in ESS/GC: critical thinkers, with strong problem-solving and communication skills who have a broad-based ESS understanding, able to dissect/synthesize debate-> government, research, industry, education, media market: for whom: government policy specialists and managers, scientists/researchers, environmental VPs.. in industry ("do you want to fight it out inside or outside?"), media, -------------------------- Other possible courses: Media studies and popular education: which would involve students in writing articles for print media, critiquing media coverage of global change issues, development/update of a global change website, participation in scientists in schools program Non-linear dynamics and statistics, ... ...? ----------------- Appendix I, What is ESS: http://www.usra.edu/esse/essonline/whatis.html Earth system science views the Earth as a synergistic physical system of interrelated phenomena, governed by complex processes involving the geosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere and. biosphere. Fundamental to the Earth system science approach is the need to emphasize relevant interactions of chemical, physical, biological and dynamical processes that extend over spatial scales from microns to the size of planetary orbits, and over time scales of milliseconds to billions of years. In building on the traditional disciplines to study the Earth, the system approach has become widely accepted as a framework from which to pose disciplinary and interdisciplinary questions in relationship to humankind. Earth system science forms the foundation of NASA's Earth science vision as well as the basis of the NSF geoscience long range planning effort as part of the nations global change research objectives. ... No individual, academic department or university is capable of developing and offering the enormous depth and breadth of knowledge such a paradigm demands. Only by joining faculty from different disciplines within and among universities can the diversity and complexity of Earth system science be fully appreciated. ----------------- Appendix II, Selected recommendations from the report: FUTURE CHALLENGES AND TRENDS IN THE GEOSCIENCES IN CANADA prepared for the Canadian Geoscience Council, Geoscience Canada, V. 22: (Nos: 1 and 2), 1995 http://www.science.uwaterloo.ca/earth/cgc/future.html # Recommendation 2: That the geoscience community advocates and accommodates to the concept of Earth System Science, which has produced a paradigm shift within the discipline. # Recommendation 3: That the academic community re-forms curricula to provide a quantitative earth systems foundation and, with programs in other sectors, promotes systematic lifelong learning opportunities to sustain a highly qualified creative work force. # Recommendation 9: That all sectors aggressively support programs to promote the public awareness of the earth sciences. # Recommendation 10: That all sectors commit to a new era of changed attitude, behaviour, and leadership, with a shared concept of earth system science, a recognition of the severe future global environmental and resource issues, and a responsibility to make Canada more efficient, productive, and sustainable, thereby turning crisis into opportunity. ----------------- Appendix III, ESS across Canada, (results from googling "Earth System Science Canada" and "global change program Canada") http://wikyonos.seos.uvic.ca/climate-lab/summary.html The Climate Modelling Group at the University of Victoria consists of three faculty members, seven research associates and 14 graduate students. The group is involved in modelling and analysis of past, present and future climate primarily using their locally developed comprehensive Earth System Climate Model, known internationally as the "UVic coupled model". http://www.brocku.ca/envi/ The Centre offers four-year programs of study leading to a BA and BSc honours in Environment and three-year BA and BSc pass degree programs with the following options: BA in Environment, with streams in Economics, Geography, Political Science, or Sociology; BSc in Environment with streams in Biological Sciences, Chemistry, Earth Sciences, or Geography. Please see the Brock Calendar for details. http://www.science.mcmaster.ca/geo/faculty/arain/research/index.htm The McMaster University, Climate Change Research Program focuses on bio- and hydro-meteorological field measurements, evapotranspiration processes, global change, environmental quality, remote sensing data applications and regional and global climate modelling. (Note, this is the program of a single faculty member). http://www.uoguelph.ca/geography/faculty/smit.htm Canada Research Chair in Global Environmental Change (impact assessment focus) http://www.utoronto.ca/govcncl/bac/details/pb/2004-05/ pba20050510-03ii.pdf Centre for Global Change Science, Faculty of Arts & Science, U. of Toronto The mandate of the Centre will be to serve as the focal point for global change research and education at the University of Toronto. The primary goal of activities at the Centre will be to better understand and predict the global scale effects of human society on the earth's climate and environment in the context of the natural variability against which the influence of human activity must be measured. The establishment of the Centre will enable us to harness the full breadth and depth of research and educational activities in the University. It will allow for the expansion of the offerings of interdisciplinary courses between core departments with an emphasis on maintaining scientific rigour. New graduate course offerings will be delivered through the Centre. http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/ The atmospheric physics group, U of Toronto includes a climate dynamics focus within W. R. Peltier's group. http://www.mcgill.ca/science/positions/ess/ Three departments in the Faculty of Science-Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Earth and Planetary Sciences, and Geography-are boldly focusing their considerable research depth on ESS. They are working together to develop a coordinated hiring plan to enhance McGill's research impact in this area and develop a new undergraduate program in ESS. http://www.mcgill.ca/ccgcr/ Centre for Climate & Global Change Research The multi-disciplinary McGill Centre for Climate and Global Change Research (C2GCR) was created in March 1990 as a successor to the Climate Research Group, founded in 1987 by the McGill Department of Meteorology (now Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences). Its current membership is composed of 16 faculty members from five departments: Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Geography, Natural Resource Sciences, Economics and, from the Universite de Quebec a Montreal. Physics. Approximately 60 graduate students working in climate or global change research are being supervised by the Centre faculty members. The two main objectives of the Centre are: 1. To promote research on the interactive physical, biological, chemical and socio-economic processes that regulate our global environment. 2. To provide a stimulating academic environment for graduate and postdoctoral students in the emerging fields of "earth system science" and climate and global change impacts. http://www.atm.dal.ca/ Research in the Atmospheric Science Group at Dalhousie University is dedicated toward understanding the physics and chemistry of the climate system. We design and build instrumentation, conduct field and laboratory experiments, perform data analysis, develop sophisticated models, and advance theory. Our research is performed in collaboration with students at both the undergraduate and graduate levels in the Departments of Physics and Atmospheric Science and Oceanography. In addition, the presence on campus of the Atlantic Environmental Prediction Research Initiative (a division of the Meteorological Service of Canada), as well as the neighbouring Bedford Institute of Oceanography, has brought together a large and active pool of...