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Conclusions

Results may be summarised as follows:

• ozone temporal fluctuations can be separated into a high frequency component, weather related, and a low frequency component, affecting trends;
• yearly mean ozone series show a decreasing trend (Table 1) with change points in 1983 (Vigna di Valle) and 1978 (Arosa) (Table 2);
• a negative ozone tendency is detected on a monthly basis, prevailing in winter/spring (Table 3 and Table 4);
• five different hypothesis (named 1A, 1B, 2A, 2B, 2C) are tested by means of STAR model in order to evaluate the changing UV radiation in 2040 with respect to 1999. Effects on 305 nm irradiance are evident in all conditions while integrated irradiance increases are significant when smaller ozone amounts are used as input (Table 5, 6 and 7).